interview

Uday Nirgudkar is an Indian journalist, news anchor, and media personality. He is known for his work in the field of journalism, particularly for his contributions to television news. In an exclusive interview with our Associate Editor, Rohan Ambike, Nirgudkar speaks about his views on the 2024 elections, public sentiment & the elections.

What are the key issues that you believe will influence the voters in the 2024 general elections?

Narendra Modi has not kept the 2024 elections as it is. He has made a list of the plans for India in 2047 and its implementation. And there is no party which has come out with that kind of roadmap or vision. So, the advantage which BJP has is that they have created a competitive space that is not occupied by any opposition. If we look at the statistics, 96 crore people are eligible for voting, out of which 12 crore of them are first time voters. They are such voters, let’s call it the Millennial crowd, that crowd has come to vote in large numbers. This crowd has not seen the life before 2000. They were not there back in 1991 when in between the elections, former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. They were not there when the economic situation in this country was very bad. There was a time when one had to make an STD call from Pune just to talk to their family in Mumbai. The younger generation haven’t seen anything of this. So, their issues are very different, their aspirations are very different, their concerns are very different. And to address them, social media influencers will be there, or people working on gaming theory will be there.

We are going to live in a world of such new millennials or artificial intelligence. To connect such people, the cleverness and maturity that Modi has shown, unfortunately none of the opposition leaders are close to this. The promise that Ram Mandir will be built, has been kept. And the flip-flop of Congress on this, I feel, is worrying. When the Supreme Court said, Mandir should be built, at that time, Congress said, yes, Mandir should be built. There exists another critical issue: the financial struggle faced by both unemployed individuals and those who have secured employment. Their annual income hovers around 2 to 2.5 lakhs. Moreover, day by day, their livelihood becomes increasingly challenging. The pressing question is how to uplift the income of this socioeconomic class. This challenge looms large over India. The implementation of the National Education Policy (NEP) itself poses a formidable obstacle. Education holds the key to transformation. Without addressing educational disparities, the game-changing solution remains elusive. In a populous country like India, where youth constitute the youngest demographic in human history, education becomes the singular focus. It is a matter of utmost concern. Despite debates about democracy and the presence of dictators, one undeniable fact emerges: voter participation. Following the 1975 emergency, an astounding 52-55 crore people exercised their right to vote. Thus, the issue of voter engagement is not a concern at this juncture. Ultimately, the development of India stands as the paramount challenge before millennials and voters alike.

How do you think the current political climate might affect the voting patterns in the upcoming elections?

When opposition parties assert that they will revisit contentious matters such as the Citizenship Amendment (CAA), the Agni Veer Yojana, and the reinstatement of Article 370, it appears misguided. Specifically, the notion of resurrecting Article 370 seems ill-advised. The current government has already passed Article 370, and it received widespread approval through democratic processes, transcending party lines. It wasn’t merely the strength of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); it was the collective voice of the people expressed through voting. There exists no substantive basis for revisiting Article 370.

The argument lacks merit and fails to resonate with the public. In my opinion, this proposal will not gain traction or resonate with the masses. It’s met with absolute indifference from most people. These issues—whether related to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation, the construction of the Ram Mandir, or Article 370—are part of our historical legacy. However, they were not created during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure. Instead, they were addressed and resolved during his leadership, prioritizing the nation’s interests. In summary, revisiting Article 370 seems futile. India’s focus should remain on addressing present challenges and building a prosperous future. Legacy issues, while important, should not hinder progress.

What role do you think social media and digital campaigns will play in these elections?

In contemporary times, social media undeniably wields considerable influence, prompting every politician, political leader, and party to enlist a digital army. However, its impact hinges on its alignment with reality and genuine public sentiment; otherwise, reliance solely on social media propaganda can lead to adverse consequences. While social media accounts for 49% of the electoral landscape, the remaining 51% is shaped by the party’s diligence, adherence to ideology, organizational strength, interpersonal connections, and integrity of its representatives. Despite the pivotal role of digital campaigns, traditional groundwork, and personal outreach remain indispensable, akin to the necessity of both an electric bulb and its corresponding power source. As we approach the elections, this dynamic is exceptionally significant, as voters scrutinize candidates with their careers and concerns hanging in the balance. Their discernment underscores the imperative for politicians to engage earnestly and substantively with the electorate beyond the realm of social media.

What are your thoughts on the election forecast models? How accurate have they been historically?

Evaluating election forecast models isn’t a straightforward task in our context, unlike the more homogeneous landscape of America. Here, linguistic, and ideological diversity prevails, with each state and constituency serving as distinct case studies. Consequently, the clarity of research objectives and the integrity of methodology are paramount. Without transparent objectives and an unadulterated approach, doubts linger over the credibility of results and the legitimacy of opinion polls and forecasting techniques. It’s akin to conducting a survey for a ticket without including the candidate’s name—how can a fair assessment be made? Moreover, considerations such as sampling size and methodology are pivotal. A robust sample size of around 1.5 to 1.7 lakhs, coupled with diverse sampling techniques like stratified, random, or quota sampling, ensures reliability. Equally crucial is the formulation of the questionnaire, which should encompass deep, focused inquiries and varied response formats to elicit genuine responses. Ultimately, assessing forecast accuracy involves a nuanced examination, considering factors like exit polls—a definitive tool in forecasting methodologies. Relying on these polls, conducted as voters exit polling stations, provides invaluable insights into electoral outcomes. Thus, in navigating the intricacies of election forecasting, transparency, methodological rigor, and reliance on comprehensive tools like exit polls are indispensable.

Can you comment on the importance of swing states in the 2024 elections?

As a political analyst, I’d highlight the crucial role swing states play in shaping the outcome of elections, particularly in a diverse and complex democracy like India. Swing states are those regions where the electoral outcome is uncertain, and political parties must compete vigorously to secure victory. The importance of swing states lies in their ability to tilt the electoral balance in favour of one party or another. Political parties keenly strategize their campaigns and policies to resonate with the concerns and aspirations of voters in these crucial regions. Furthermore, swing states often serve as bellwethers for broader trends in the

electorate, providing insights into shifting political landscapes and emerging voter preferences. As such, they command the attention of political analysts and pundits seeking to decipher the pulse of the nation. In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, understanding the dynamics of swing states will be paramount for political parties seeking to secure a mandate. Factors such as regional issues, demographic composition, and historical voting patterns will all influence the electoral calculus in these pivotal battlegrounds.

Lastly, what would be your advice to the voters as they prepare to vote in the 2024 general elections?

You must vote and vote fearlessly. Keep the freebies out of voting. Freebies dent the economy. The 2024 elections are crucial for India’s future. Voters must recognize that their choices will impact policies, governance, and the nation’s trajectory. Beyond party affiliations, delve into candidates’ track records, competence, and vision. Scrutinize party manifestos for practical solutions, not just promises. Vote based on issues, not identity, and reject divisive narratives. Uphold the integrity of elections by avoiding inducements or bribes. Encourage eligible citizens to register and cast their ballots. Seek leaders who prioritize public welfare, transparency, and accountability. Remember that every vote matters, and collective action strengthens democracy. Wear your voter badge with pride, celebrate the democratic process, and stay informed beyond voting day. Let’s approach the 2024 elections with a sense of responsibility, critical thinking, and hope. Our collective choices will define India’s path ahead.